# GAIS vs Hammarby > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Wed 20 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/998) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** GAIS 2–0 Hammarby ## Model verdict - **GAIS win:** 25% - **Draw:** 40% - **Hammarby win:** 36% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Underdog home side faces in-form visitors with defensive questions ## The stage This Allsvenskan fixture kicks off Wed 20 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The game sits squarely in the league calendar as a midweek meeting where points can swing momentum across the table; the model assigns a split market-like probability to the three outcomes — Home 25% / Draw 40% / Away 36% — noting low confidence in the outright pick (4 percentage points to the runner-up)[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum GAIS[^fact-4] arrive without much recent firepower: their last 10 matches read D W W D D (recorded as 2-4-4 W-D-L), producing 1.00 points per game and averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Hammarby[^fact-5] are visibly hotter on the numbers, a WWWDD sequence in their last 10 that translates to a 6-3-1 record, 2.10 points per game and a striking 2.50 goals scored versus just 0.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. That gulf is also captured in Elo: GAIS carry a -53 point differential against Hammarby once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. The combination of Hammarby’s superior goals for/against and the negative Elo swing frames them as the clear form favourites despite the model’s conservative outright probabilities[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel GAIS’s attacking spark has recently come from William Milovanovic, who has 2 goals and 2 assists across his last four appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.20[^fact-9]. Hammarby’s hot hand is Nahir Besara: 4 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 8.12[^fact-10]. On the absentee front, GAIS will be without Gustav Lundgren (injury), who contributed 180 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. Hammarby are missing Sourou Koné through injury, recorded as 1 minute in the recent run[^fact-12]. Those two unavailabilities are the most prominent personnel changes explicitly noted and should shape each side’s immediate tactical choices[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were analysed against the model[^fact-13], and the model flags clear edges on the two defensive/low-scoring propositions plus a contrarian home value. - Under 2.5 goals: the model gives this outcome a 73% probability versus a market-implied price of 2.12 at Unibet, an edge of 25.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Both teams to score — No: the model assigns a 68% probability versus the market price of 2.23 at Unibet, an edge of 22.7 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. - Match winner — Home: the model rates the home win at 35% while the market prices home at 3.85 at Unibet, creating an edge of 9.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Those edges align with Hammarby’s recent defensive stinginess (0.70 goals conceded per match) and GAIS’s modest attacking returns (1.20 goals scored per match), reinforcing the model’s expectation that this will be a low-scoring contest where one side (likely the visitors) holds the initiative on the scoreboard[^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7]. The presence of three compared markets is explicitly noted in the analysis[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model leans toward a low-scoring affair with Hammarby structurally superior on form and Elo, but the outright market is finely balanced: Home 25% / Draw 40% / Away 36% per the model and flagged as low-confidence in the outright outcome (4-point gap to the runner-up)[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. Given the statistical profile — modest GAIS output, Hammarby’s defensive shut-down numbers, and the model’s quantified edges — the clearest actionable signal in the data is toward tight scorelines and a single side doing most of the attacking work rather than an open, high-scoring game[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 20 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 25% / Draw 40% / Away 36% (source: model; confidence low, 4 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GAIS vs HAM — Elo differential -53 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GAIS recent form** — DWWDD last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HAM recent form** — WWWDD last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 73% vs market price 2.12 at Unibet, edge 25.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 68% vs market price 2.23 at Unibet, edge 22.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 35% vs market price 3.85 at Unibet, edge 9.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **GAIS in-form player** — William Milovanovic — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.20. [^fact-10]: **HAM in-form player** — Nahir Besara — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.12. [^fact-11]: **GAIS key absence** — Gustav Lundgren out (injury), 180 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **HAM key absence** — Sourou Koné out (injury), 1 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .